Author Archives: gcochran9

Viral Dose

If starting out with a high viral dose makes a difference, that must play out pretty rapidly, since an infected cell tends to produce somewhere between many and a shitload of new virions.  Influenza A and B produce 500-100 in  … Continue reading

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Boris Johnson

Now he’s in intensive care.  Why on Earth was he shaking hands with coronavirus patients?      

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IHME projections

arguablywrong has taken a look at the projections the Feds are using for planning.  He has some criticism of some features of their model: unfortunately he is almost certainly correct. First, they accept CCP data. I am not sure what … Continue reading

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Possible Pandemics

In the past, serious infectious diseases were spread in several qualitatively different ways:  by arthropod vectors like mosquitoes or fleas (malaria and bubonic plague) , via contaminated water like cholera or typhoid, sexually (syphilis and AIDS), and via respiratory transmission  … Continue reading

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Learning from Wuflu

Every crisis is also an opportunity.  In this case, we get to learn how people respond, under pressure, to a situation that ( for most) is very new.   Generally quite badly: most people  show very bad judgment.  But to what … Continue reading

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Metastable

YOu can imagine a situation where R0 < 1, but only due to a strategy that includes some methods that only work  when the absolute number of infected people  is low. Something like fighting fires in California brush: everything’s flammable, … Continue reading

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THE WONDERFUL “ONE-HOSS-SHAY”

Fairly often, I’ve seen people misunderstand things about life expectancy. They would talk about the olden days  ( Rome, for example ) , when the average life expectancy ( at birth !) could be as low as 25 years.  They … Continue reading

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Richard Epstein II: I Want to Believe

In the original article, on March 16th, he said that Wuflu would kill less than 500 people in the US. As falsification loomed, a few days later (March 23rd) , he said it would kill less than 2500. On March … Continue reading

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No salvation in the denominator

As I mentioned before, doofi at Oxford have suggested  that vast number of people have already contracted coronavirus, and that the fraction of those infected that become ill is thus much smaller than it looks.  There was never any chance … Continue reading

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E. O. Wilson

I just noticed that E.O. Wilson says that his IQ was tested at 123.  Having read some of his books & essays, and listened to one of his talks,  I believe it.

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